Dr Arnold Toynbee, the great 20th Century historian, observed that the breakdown and eventual disintegration of civilizations, for the most part, follow a common pattern. The ruling class, who once were able to creatively respond to challenges on behalf of the masses, lose their ability to inspire and lead. The masses become estranged from these leaders, the leaders, in turn, turn to rigidity, coercion and force to retain power. The loss of social cohesion, moral unity, and the capacity for self-determination brings a civilization to collapse. Toynbee characterizes such a fragmented and disintegrating civilization in terms of an internal and external proletariat and corresponding psychological schisms in the souls of those living through such times. It is these characteristics we will explore in this video, in the hope of drawing some parallels with today’s socio-political situation in the West.
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While it might seem intuitive to assume that a collapsing civilization leads to inevitable dissolution, this is not always the case. Some civilizations defy the disintegration process, and in doing so, they become "arrested" before their inevitable end. For example, despite breaking down toward the end of the third millennium BC, Egyptiac civilization refused to disappear and managed to persist for an astonishing 2,500 additional years. However, this prolonged existence came at a steep price, as the society survived in a state of petrification, a life-in-death existence, where vitality had been drained, and progress halted.
The core of disintegration lies in a loss of harmony, both within society and between society and its external challenges. This loss of harmony manifests itself in social schisms, which splinter a once-coherent society into warring factions. These schisms occur vertically, between geographically separated communities, and horizontally, between socially segregated classes. Vertical schisms—inter-state warfare—are a more universal feature of all human societies, including pre-civilizational tribes. While destructive, these vertical schisms are not unique to civilizations.
Horizontal schisms, however, are distinct to civilizations and emerge during periods of breakdown and disintegration. These class-based divides fracture societies along lines of privilege, status, and authority. In times of growth, societies often maintain a degree of social cohesion, with different ranks accepting their roles as part of a broader, unified social structure. But as civilizations break down, the moral and social consensus collapses, leading to a breakdown in these once-stable relationships.
There are often three main classes that emerge during disintegration: the dominant minority, the internal proletariat, and the external proletariat. Toynbee, in his analysis of disintegrating civilizations uses the term "proletariat" that extends beyond the Marxian association with the working class or the economically disadvantaged. Rather he refers more broadly to those who are spiritually, culturally, or materially disenfranchised by a civilization in decline.
The dominant minority consists of the remnants of the creative elites who once led the civilization, but who now, having lost their moral and intellectual authority, resort to force and repression to maintain their power. This group seeks to impose order through the construction of a universal state, attempting to centralize power and control even as the society fragments.
Meanwhile, the internal proletariat1, which comprises the masses within the society, become alienated from the leadership. Once loyal to the creative elites, these people now find themselves under the thumb of coercive, despotic rulers. As a response to this alienation, the internal proletariat develop a spiritual ethos separate from the decaying institutions of the state. In time, this spiritual schism results in the formation of a “universal church” that challenge the authority of the “universal state” and provides spiritual answers and a sense of belonging that the disintegrating political and social structures can no longer offer.
Outside the civilization’s borders, the external proletariat2—those living outside the geographical and cultural boundaries of a declining civilization, which Toynbee calls “barbarian groups”—become increasingly important in the civilization's eventual disintegration. Originally drawn into the civilization’s orbit, they now reject the dominant culture and assert their own identity through military means. For example, the Germanic tribes, Huns, and Goths, were external proletariats of the Roman Empire and ultimately played a major role in its collapse. Similarly, in other civilizations, such as the Han Chinese Empire or the Sassanid Persian Empire, external groups like the Xiongnu or the Arab tribesmen acted as external proletariat.
These three groups—dominant minority, internal proletariat, and external proletariat—each represent different reactions to the disintegration process. Each, in their own way, express dissatisfaction with the status quo, and each develop their own institutions to cope with or resist the ongoing collapse.
The dominant minority, however, remains trapped in its defensive posture. Having lost its creative abilities, it clings to power through force, refusing to relinquish its role as the society's leader. This rigid refusal to adapt or innovate ensures that the dominant minority will continue to face the same challenges, each time meeting them with the same ineffective responses. The dominant minority’s inability to respond creatively to challenges leads to eventual downfall.
Toynbee argues that the internal proletariat, in particular, play a vital role in the process of "schism-and-palingenesia"—the dual movement of division and rebirth that characterizes the disintegration of civilizations. The internal proletariat’s act of secession from the dominant society is not just a destructive break but also a creative response that sets the stage for future growth.
The Greek concept of “palingenesia”, or rebirth, is central to the cycle of the rise and fall of civilizations. It embodies the idea that, out of the ashes of a collapsed civilization, a new form of life—usually spiritual or religious—can emerge. The schism, painful as it may be, is a necessary step toward the creation of a new social order. An example would be Christianity rising out of a collapsing Roman Empire.
Internal Proletariats
The ancient Greek historian Thucydides chronicles the breakdown of Hellenic society after 431 BC. He captures the onset of the class wars that began in Corcyra and later spread across much of the Hellenic world.
In peacetime, there would have been no cause for such bitter struggles between the leaders of the proletariat and the reactionaries, but the outbreak of war created a demoralizing spiritual force that shattered the Hellenic society’s moral solidarity and plunged Hellenic society into every kind of moral evil. In this distorted moral landscape, reckless aggression was redefined as courageous loyalty, while prudence and restraint were equated with cowardice or disloyalty. Treachery became a sign of intelligence, and violence a hallmark of honesty. In this climate, political factions formed not to protect the public good but to pursue selfish gains, using deception and betrayal as their primary tools.
This moral collapse, according to Thucydides, was driven by an insatiable thirst for power. Political leaders, on both sides, manipulated the language of equality or conservatism to disguise their real motives, which were always about personal gain - men abandoned religion and traditional values in favor of power grabs and vendettas.
The corrosive effects of this class warfare were felt across the Hellenic world, leading to the creation of a large population of "stateless" exiles—people who had been uprooted from their homes due to the conflicts. By the mid-fourth century BC, these displaced persons were a common sight, and their fate became entwined with the mercenary armies that drove the continuous cycle of violence. Soldiers-for-hire, many of them exiled from their homelands, were now fueling the wars, and the wars, in turn, created more exiles and more mercenaries in a vicious cycle.
The wars of Alexander the Great and his successors further accelerated the formation of this internal proletariat of homeless Greeks employed in the military. While these conquests brought vast new territories under Hellenic control, they also brought widespread displacement and economic upheaval. The increase of bullion into circulation from the Achaemenian treasuries, caused inflation and destabilized the economies of the Greek city-states. Peasants and artisans, who had once enjoyed modest but stable lives, were plunged into poverty as the cost of living skyrocketed.
A hundred years later, a similar process unfolded in Italy during the Hannibalic War, which devastated the peasantry. Hannibal’s campaigns ravaged the Italian countryside, and the long military campaigns that followed further uprooted the rural population. Italian peasants, once conscripted for military service out of duty, were gradually transformed into professional soldiers, as their traditional way of life became untenable.
These upheavals marked the genesis of the Hellenic internal proletariat. The hallmark of this class was not just material poverty, but the deep sense of alienation and dispossession they felt. They had been robbed of their traditional place in society, and this spiritual loss was often accompanied by physical displacement. As the wars continued, the ranks of the internal proletariat swelled, drawing in people from all strata of society, including those from conquered civilizations who were forced into servitude.
The internal proletariat of Hellenic society comprised three distinct groups. First, there were the disinherited members of Hellenic society itself—citizens who had lost their status and security due to the wars. Second, there were the conquered peoples from other civilizations—those who were subjugated but not physically uprooted from their lands. Finally, there were the slaves, both spiritually and physically dispossessed, often drawn from conquered populations, who were forcibly deported and put to work on plantations or in mines.
The use of slave labor became increasingly widespread as the wars depopulated vast regions. In Roman Italy, for example, the aftermath of the Hannibalic War saw the displacement of small landowners, who were replaced by vast estates worked by slave labor. The slave economy, which had first emerged in Greek Sicily around 480 BC, now spread throughout the Mediterranean, fueling an insatiable demand for human labor. Entire populations were exploited to meet this demand, leading to widespread suffering and exploitation.
The common thread that united these diverse groups within the internal proletariat was their shared experience of dispossession. They had been stripped of their social heritage, and their existence was now defined by exploitation and marginalization. This deep sense of alienation fostered a uniform response across the internal proletariat—one marked by bitterness, anger, and a desire for revenge. The proletarian revolts and uprisings that punctuated this period were expressions of a collective rage born of injustice and oppression.
There are many groups in the West today who feel stripped of their social heritage, marginalized, replaced, oppressed, and feel a great sense of injustice. The circumstances of this contemporary internal proletariat of the West may be very different to those of the Mediterranean two-and-a-half-thousand years ago, nevertheless, express a similar collective rage and revolt against the ruling powers.
At the turn of the third and second centuries BC, Egyptian insurrections against the Ptolemaic regime marked a critical turning point, triggered by the Ptolemies' decision to conscript the native population into their military forces. This decision inadvertently empowered the Egyptian fellahin with arms, organization, and confidence, leading to a series of insurrections. Similarly, the Jewish revolts against Seleucid and Roman rule, beginning with Judas Maccabeus3 and continuing with the destruction of Jerusalem, illustrate how religious and cultural oppression fostered explosive resistance, with this rebellious spirit flaring up even after the destruction of Jerusalem.
The insurrection led by Aristonicus4 against Roman rule, the brutal suppression of the Italian business community by the cities of Asia Minor under Mithridates of Pontus, and the slave revolts in Sicily are all examples of these violent responses to oppression. The uprisings often merged the forces of slaves, poor freemen, and other exploited classes into a unified, albeit desperate, resistance, often in orgies of violence5.
This violence, however, was not the only reaction. The spiritual dimension of the internal proletariat's response to oppression can manifest as passive resistance and the refusal to return violence for violence. For example, the passive resistance of Jewish figures such as Eleazar and the seven brothers presents a different response to oppression, one that reflects deep moral and spiritual strength. Similarly, the Christian response to Roman persecution, especially the stance of Jesus and his followers, illustrates a powerful rejection of violence in favor of gentleness and submission.
The internal conflict between gentleness and violence continued to shape the spiritual development of the oppressed, whether in the form of the Jewish resistance to Hellenization or the growth of the early Christian Church. While violent revolts flared up in many places, the gradual triumph of gentleness and spiritual resilience marked the internal proletariat’s deeper and more lasting response to the challenges of oppression and social collapse.
The struggle between violence and gentleness was not confined exclusively to the internal proletariat, there were hints of spirituality among the Hellenic dominant minority as well. The contrast between Eleazar the Scribe and Judas the Hammer, or between Jesus and his contemporary Jewish militant Theudas, and similarly between the gentle King Agis and the violent King Cleomenes in the third century BC at Sparta, or in the second century BC at Rome, the contrast between the gentle tribune Tiberius Gracchus and the violent tribune Gaius Gracchus.
In this duality of responses—violent resistance and spiritual transcendence—we see the multifaceted reactions of the internal proletariat to the oppressive conditions they faced.
External Proletariates
Unlike the internal proletariat, who are geographically intertwined with the dominant minority, the external proletariat is both physically and emotionally separated from the civilization it once admired, creating a tangible frontier that signifies their separateness. There is an obvious moral and cultural schism, as the external proletariat rejects the cultural influence that once radiated outward from the heart of the now collapsing civilization.
During the growth phase of a civilization, there is no clear boundary between the dominant civilization and those societies surrounding it. The cultural and moral influence of a creative minority extends beyond its borders, influencing neighboring societies. For example, Hellenic culture spread far beyond its geographical heartland, leaving its mark on regions as distant as Manchuria, Celtic Britain, and Northern India. This expansive influence reflects the strength and vitality of a growing civilization, where external communities are drawn into its orbit. The United States of America, during the second half of the 20th Century and into the 21st Century, wielded extraordinary socio-cultural influence over the Western world.
However, when a civilization breaks down, its ability to attract and influence neighboring communities diminishes. The creative force that once inspired admiration and emulation falters, external societies that had previously admired its culture now reject it, establishing a rigid frontier between themselves and the disintegrating civilization.
As tensions grow, this frontier, formerly a transitional zone of cultural exchange, transforms into a militarized boundary where violence replaces peaceful coexistence. This shift is mirrored in the transition from the “limen” (a cultural and geographical buffer zone) to the “limes” (a hard military frontier). The Hellenic civilization's early fluid boundaries with nearby regions, such as Macedonia, Thrace, and Epirus, were defined by cultural influence and gradual shifts. However, as the Hellenic civilization fell apart, these buffer zones grew rigid, and conflict replaced cultural interchange.
This breakdown was symbolized by the Thracian invasion of Macedonia during the Atheno-Peloponnesian War, a pivotal event that transformed Thrace from a semi-Hellenized region into a hostile frontier. Over the next thousand years, a relentless series of barbarian invasions and conflicts would erode the frontiers of the Hellenic world.
The Hellenic colonists in Southern Italy and Sicily were nearly driven into the sea by the Oscan tribes. Although the barbarians’ advance into Sicily was eventually halted by Roman intervention, the broader struggle between the Hellenic world and its external proletariat continued to intensify. The Roman Republic, inheriting the mantle of Hellenic civilization, took on the responsibility of defending these fragile frontiers.
Rome’s military campaigns against both barbarian and rival Italian forces extended the Hellenic world’s influence far beyond its original borders. However, these expansions only served to stretch the Hellenic society’s military and political resources thin. As Rome pushed further into Europe, North Africa, and Southwest Asia, it found itself defending an ever-growing frontier that it could no longer effectively manage.
By the turn of the third century BC, Rome was already grappling with barbarian pressure on its northern and eastern frontiers. The Sarmatians, Arabs, Numidians, and Cimbri posed constant threats to the Hellenic world’s stability, and Rome was compelled to intervene militarily to halt their advances.
Rome’s ability to repel these early barbarian invasions was impressive but ultimately unsustainable. The victories of Marius and Pompey in North Africa, Caesar’s campaigns in Gaul, and the defense of the Syrian frontier only temporarily delayed the inevitable. The external proletariat continued to press against the borders of the Hellenic world, and each successive wave of barbarian aggression weakened Rome’s ability to maintain its sprawling frontiers.
As the third century AD approached, the Roman Empire’s external proletariat launched its third and final wave of barbarian invasions. This time, the barbarians succeeded in breaching the empire’s defenses, leading to the final collapse of the Hellenic world. The prolonged confrontation between the Roman Empire and its external proletariat had finally reached its climax, with the external proletariat emerging victorious.
There are many other examples but suffice it to say that the external proletariat can play a significant role in the disintegration of a collapsing civilization.
Schism in the Soul
While social breakdown manifests itself externally in class struggles, wars, and institutional collapse, Toynbee contends that the true source of this disintegration is within the individual - personal crises of behavior, feeling, and life, which are the true essence and origin of the visible manifestations of social collapse. Individual souls who have lost the opportunity (but not the personal capacity) to undertake the creative actions that sustain a society's growth are likely to seek refuge in a variety of alternate reactions to the forces of disintegration. These reactions are essentially pathological inversions of a civilization's growth cycle. Some of these reactions are negative and destructive, with individuals either abandoning themselves to self-indulgence or adopting futile, artificial attempts to hold back the inevitable collapse. Other reactions, however, point toward the possibility of spiritual renewal—leading toward the "palingenesia," or rebirth, that may emerge from the wreckage.
There are two primary ways individuals attempt to deal with the collapse of a disintegrating society. On one hand, some individuals seek to "return to nature" by casting off restraint and embracing hedonistic indulgence, believing that spontaneity is the key to recovering the lost creative faculty. Others respond by enforcing stringent self-discipline, mortifying their natural desires and passions in the hope that asceticism might restore the creative powers that society has lost. In Hellenic society, these reactions were epitomized by the followers of Epicurus, who equated self-indulgence with living according to nature, and the Stoics, who believed that self-control and endurance in the face of life's hardships were the only paths to virtue.
The Stoic approach, rooted in the belief that the only true good or evil lay in the individual’s will, emphasized resilience and detachment from external circumstances. Stoicism, as reflected in the writings of the philosopher-emperor Marcus Aurelius, presented an ideal of self-control in the face of disintegration—a call for individuals to maintain their inner harmony even as the world around them collapsed. For the Stoics, the highest virtue lay in accepting whatever fate delivered, whether that be prosperity or adversity, with serenity and gratitude.
Stoic philosophy, with its emphasis on self-denial and endurance, eventually blended with the rising Christian tradition during the final stages of Hellenic civilization. As Christianity spread, it adopted and transformed elements of Stoic asceticism, emphasizing a less self-centered form of renunciation—one focused on love, humility, and service to others.
Similarly in other context - the Syriac world saw the contrast between the pessimistic skepticism of Ecclesiastes and the ascetic practices of the Essenes, a monastic community dedicated to purity and spiritual discipline. In Sinic civilization, the teachings of Yang Chu were used to justify hedonism, even as Confucian and Mencian scholars upheld a philosophy of moral restraint. In later periods of Japanese history, particularly before the Tokugawa Shogunate, the moral extremes were represented by the ruthless immorality of the ruling elite and the unyielding dedication of the samurai class.
In modern Western society, the invitation to "return to nature" has echoed through time since Rousseau’s day, most notably in countercultural movements, the drug culture of the 20th century, and various forms of psychological exploration that seek to uncover the "true self" beneath layers of societal conditioning. These movements often present themselves as avenues for rediscovering spontaneous creativity, though they frequently veer into an abandonment of discipline and responsibility. This attitude risks undermining the moral and psychological foundations that support personal and societal stability. However, there is also a burgeoning reactionary movement that seeks to reassert self-discipline and moral restraint in response to perceived "moral pollution". In what is undeniably the 21st Century disintegration of Western civilization, these movements back to “traditional values” are starkly countercultural to the narrative of the dominant minority. Such desertion from the disintegrating society can also include acts of self-sacrifice, even martyrdom, as some model a higher level of moral behaviour, inspiring others to follow.
Conversely the collapsing society may inspire increasingly selfish and individualistic behavior. During times of crisis, many people try to leave their societal commitments, preferring personal safety rather than confronting the larger difficulties of a collapsing world.
The failure of society to provide creative opportunities also leads individuals to feel adrift in a chaotic and uncontrollable universe. This feeling of powerlessness often manifests in a belief that life is governed by impersonal forces of necessity or blind chance. During periods of social breakdown, individuals may attribute their suffering to the workings of fate or fortune—forces beyond their control—and come to see themselves as helpless victims of external circumstances. A state that is also highly correlated with mental anguish and illness.
Thus, as civilizations disintegrate, the schism within the soul of the individual is as profound as the schism in society. Individuals, faced with the collapse of the social order, must navigate a range of responses—from hedonism and abandon to asceticism and martyrdom. While many reactions are negative and contribute to the ongoing disintegration, others hold the potential for renewal, offering a path to spiritual rebirth and a new form of social cohesion.
At the societal level, the sense of personal drift mirrors a broader cultural anomie, a loss of differentiation that accompanies the decline of civilizations. This loss of form and style permeates every sphere of activity, from social interactions to art and literature, where eclecticism and syncretism replace once distinct traditions. In the social realm, this results in a blending of incongruous traditions, producing a melting pot of conflicting values and ideas, which becomes emblematic of a disintegrating civilization. This phenomenon is most evident in the dominant minority of a collapsing society, who, as empire-builders and founders of universal states, exhibit a keen receptivity to cultural promiscuity, abandoning their creative role in favor of imperial consolidation.
Toynbee argues that the pursuit of utopian ideals—whether through a return to the past or ideals of the future—may offer an escape the present disintegration but fail to address the deeper spiritual challenges that come with the collapse of civilizations. They represent superficial solutions that ultimately deepen the crisis by diverting the soul from genuine creative responses. The path of possibility for those with the vision and spiritual courage, Toynbee suggests, is to confront the crisis head-on. The process of disintegration, like that of growth, offers opportunities for those who resist despair and refuse to succumb to the artificial substitutes of archaism or futurism. Such individuals have the potential to contribute to a greater act of creation, one that may surpass even the most vigorous stages of social growth.
These individuals, though few, are the ones who can transcend the limitations of their time and help shape the future in profound ways. They reject both passive acceptance of collapse and futile attempts to reverse it through superficial means, instead embracing the challenge as an opportunity for true spiritual and creative renewal. In doing so, they embody the hope that, even in the darkest moments of societal decline, the seeds of a new beginning can be planted, leading to the eventual rebirth and regeneration of civilization.
Toynbee offers that Christianity, which elevates love as the highest and most divine quality, offers a powerful counterpoint to the nihilism of detachment in the midst of a disintegrating civilisation: It is not by seeking to escape suffering but by embracing and responding to it , that the soul born into a disintegrating society can win release and regain, on a higher plane, the path of growth from which his society has strayed. The rebirth or “palingenesia” in the soul, is a process that mirrors the restoration of growth after the collapse of a society. The rebirth achieved is not merely a mundane restoration but a spiritual state, imbued with the image of God, and reflective of the life Jesus proclaimed: "I am come that they might have life, and that they might have it more abundantly." This is the ultimate aim of Jesus' mission on Earth, signifying a life that transcends worldly concerns and is fully integrated with divine reality.
Internal Proletariat: This group comprises those who live within the boundaries of the disintegrating society but are disconnected from its dominant cultural and social forces. They are often marginalized, disenfranchised, and spiritually or materially impoverished. Though they are part of the civilization geographically and socially, they no longer feel "of" that society, as they are alienated from the ruling minority. Their sense of disinheritance leads them either to violent rebellion or to spiritual and religious movements that challenge the decaying dominant order. In some cases, they may create new institutions, such as universal churches, that reflect a response to the moral and spiritual breakdown of the dominant society.
External Proletariat: This group consists of communities or groups that live outside the borders of the disintegrating civilization but are affected by it through economic, cultural, or military interactions. While initially drawn to the civilization's power and influence, they eventually reject its influence and adopt a posture of hostility. The external proletariat often manifests as barbarian war-bands that challenge the decaying civilization through violent confrontation, but they also have the potential to absorb aspects of the civilization’s spiritual or cultural achievements. Over time, they may play a significant role in the civilization’s final collapse or in the creation of new societal orders.
The outbreak began when Judas Maccabeus took up arms against Antiochus Epiphanes in 166 BC, and it was not quelled by the destruction of Jerusalem in the great Romano-Jewish War of AD 66–70. It burst out again among the Jewish diaspora in Cyrene, Egypt, and Cyprus in AD 115–117, and among the Palestinian Jews in a final, forlorn effort under the leadership of Bar Kochba in AD 132–135.
Semi-Hellenized natives of Western Asia Minor to expose themselves to Roman vengeance twice over: first in 132 BC, when they joined the Attalid Prince Aristonicus upon hearing the appalling news that the last Attalus had bequeathed his kingdom to Rome, and for the second time in 88 BC, when the cities of Asia Minor opened their gates to Rome’s rebel client-king Mithridates of Pontus, and the citizens took the opportunity to massacre the entire Italian business community in their midst. The rising of Aristonicus is the connecting link between the outbreaks of the subjected Oriental peoples in the conquered provinces and the outbreaks of the imported slaves and pauperized freemen in the homelands of Hellenic society. Slaves and “poor freemen” fought side by side in Aristonicus’s rebel band, and his rising may have been inspired by the news of the slave revolt that triggered the first of the two great slave wars in Sicily (135–131 BC and 104–100 BC). These two Sicilian outbreaks were perhaps the largest in scale and the longest-drawn-out of the slave revolts on the western plantations in the post-Hannibalic Age, but they were neither the first nor the last of their kind, nor perhaps even the most savage.
The savagery with which the Roman citizen-proletariat turned and rent the Roman plutocracy in the civil wars, particularly in the paroxysm of 91–82 BC, was quite equal to the savagery of Judas Maccabeus and Spartacus. The most satanic of all the dark figures that stand out in sinister silhouette against the glare of a world in flames are the Roman revolutionary leaders who had been flung headlong out of the Ordo Senatorius itself: Marius, Sertorius, Catiline, and Sextus Pompeius.
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